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How to read CFTC Commitments of Traders data and use it in market analysis.
The Commitments of Traders (COT) report is published weekly by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). It shows the open interest positions held by different types of traders in US futures markets.
The report provides a snapshot of who is long (betting on higher prices) and who is short (betting on lower prices) in futures contracts for commodities including gold, silver, crude oil, and natural gas.
Published: Every Friday at 3:30 PM ET, reflecting positions as of Tuesday close.
Source: CFTC.gov
These are companies that produce, process, or use the physical commodity. For gold: miners, refiners, jewelers. For oil: producers, refiners, airlines. They use futures to hedge business risk, not to speculate.
Commercials are often on the "right side" of major moves because they hedge in anticipation of future production or needs.
These are large speculators: hedge funds, commodity trading advisors (CTAs), and other institutional traders. They don't produce or consume the commodity; they trade for profit.
Managed money positioning is watched closely because extreme positioning can signal potential reversals. When speculators are extremely long or short, they may be forced to unwind positions, causing sharp price moves.
Individual traders and small entities whose positions are below CFTC reporting thresholds. Aggregated as a residual category.
Net positioning = Long contracts - Short contracts for a given category. For example, if managed money holds 300,000 long and 100,000 short gold futures, their net position is +200,000 contracts (net long).
Tracking changes in net positioning can signal shifts in sentiment. A large increase in managed money longs may indicate growing bullish conviction, while a large decline may signal weakening sentiment.
When managed money net positioning reaches extremes (very high longs or very high shorts compared to recent history), it can signal a crowded trade. Crowded trades are vulnerable to reversals if the market moves against the consensus.
Our dashboards show managed money positioning as a percentile of the 52-week range. Readings above 80th percentile or below 20th percentile indicate potential extremes worth monitoring.
When commercials (hedgers) are heavily net short and speculators are heavily net long, it may indicate an overextended market. Conversely, when commercials are net long and speculators net short, it may suggest undervaluation.
This is not a timing tool but a context indicator. Markets can remain at extremes longer than expected.