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How to interpret the Weekly Petroleum Status Report from the US Energy Information Administration.
The Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR) is published every Wednesday at 10:30 AM Eastern Time by the US Energy Information Administration. It provides a detailed snapshot of US crude oil and refined product inventories, production, imports, exports, and refinery activity for the week ending the previous Friday.
This report is one of the most closely watched data releases in energy markets. Surprise builds or draws in crude inventories can cause immediate price reactions, sometimes moving WTI crude by several dollars per barrel within minutes.
What It Shows: Total US crude oil stocks (excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve), reported in thousands of barrels. The headline number traders focus on is the week-over-week change.
How to Interpret: A larger-than-expected inventory build (increase) typically signals weak demand or excess supply and pressures prices lower. A surprise draw (decrease) suggests tight supply or strong demand and supports higher prices.
Context Matters: Compare the current inventory level to the 5-year average for the same week of the year. Inventories above the average suggest the market is well-supplied; below average suggests tightness. Seasonal patterns are important—inventories normally build in spring refinery maintenance season and draw in summer driving season.
Our oil dashboard automatically shows current inventories vs the 5-year average.
What It Shows: Crude oil inventories stored at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for NYMEX WTI crude futures contracts.
Why It Matters: Cushing is the pricing and delivery hub for the WTI benchmark. When Cushing inventories fall to critically low levels (approaching tank bottoms, typically around 20-25 million barrels), it can cause severe price dislocations, backwardation in the futures curve, and logistical issues.
Conversely, very high Cushing stocks can weigh on WTI prices relative to other benchmarks like Brent, creating or widening price spreads.
What It Shows: The percentage of total US refining capacity that is currently operating (refinery utilization rate) and total crude inputs to refineries.
How to Interpret: Higher refinery runs increase crude demand, which can draw down crude inventories and support crude prices. They also increase the supply of refined products (gasoline, diesel), which can pressure product prices.
Refineries typically undergo maintenance in the spring and fall, reducing utilization. Hurricane season (June-November) can force Gulf Coast refinery shutdowns, disrupting product markets and sometimes creating temporary crude supply gluts.
What It Shows: Inventories of gasoline and distillate fuel oil (diesel, heating oil) in thousands of barrels, with week-over-week changes.
Why It Matters: Tight product inventories ahead of peak demand seasons (gasoline in summer, distillates in winter) can support refinery margins and crude demand. Large product builds signal weak demand or high refinery runs.
Gasoline stocks are closely watched heading into Memorial Day (start of US driving season). Distillate stocks matter most in fall ahead of winter heating demand.
What It Shows: US crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day.
Timeliness Note: Production data in the weekly report is estimated and can be revised. More accurate production data comes with a lag in the monthly Petroleum Supply Monthly report.
Rising US production adds to global supply and can pressure prices, especially if it exceeds expectations. Falling production (e.g., due to winter freeze-offs in the Permian Basin or hurricane shut-ins in the Gulf) tightens supply.
What It Shows: Weekly crude oil imports and exports in thousands of barrels per day.
Context: The US became a net petroleum exporter in 2020 for the first time since 1949. Tracking net imports (imports minus exports) shows whether the US is adding to or drawing from domestic supplies via international trade.
Large import or export swings can explain inventory changes even when production and refinery runs are steady.
Analysts survey expectations for the headline crude inventory change. These consensus estimates are published by financial news services. The American Petroleum Institute (API) releases its own inventory estimates on Tuesday evenings, which traders use as a preview.
Algorithmic and human traders react instantly to the headline numbers. If crude inventories came in significantly different from expectations (typically +/- 2 million barrels is considered meaningful), prices can gap immediately.
Deeper analysis looks at the details: where did the inventory change come from (imports, production, refinery demand)? What happened at Cushing? Were product inventories aligned with crude moves? This context can sustain the initial price reaction or reverse it.